Jan industrial output seen up 16.65 pct y/y

Reuters    Translate This Article
10 March 2010

REUTERS FORECAST: Industrial output to rise 16.65 percent in January from a year earlier, the median forecast in a poll of 20 economists shows. That is marginally lower than an annual rise of 16.8 percent in December. Forecasts ranged from a rise of 17.6 percent to 9.5 percent.

FACTORS TO WATCH: Manufacturing growth is clearly on the upswing propelled by growing economic momentum and aided by stimulus measures and easy credit.

Strong consumer durables and capital goods demand are driving up the overall manufacturing numbers. With both exports and non-oil imports also on the rise, the strong momentum is likely to be sustained.

MARKET IMPACT: A strong rise in the output, a 7.2 percent government growth forecast for the 2009-10 financial year and inflation worries would make for a strong case for the central bank to hike benchmark rates like repo and reverse repo at its April policy review.

Market expectations regarding a possible rate hike in April remain unchanged, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) resorted to a sharper than expected 75 basis point hike in cash reserve requirements for banks at its January meeting.

Market watchers expect the RBI's next move will be to raise both its benchmark lending and borrowing rates rates by at least 25 bps each to 5.00 percent and 3.50 percent respectively.

(Reporting by Swati Bhat, Boby Michael, Neha D'silva and Jeanette Rodrigues in MUMBAI; Writing by Abhijit Neogy; Editing by Malini Menon and Kim Coghill)

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